Edama Chairman Dr. Dureid Mahasneh recently said that the reason most Jordanians are opting for electric cars instead of standard internal combustion engine (ICE) cars is not because Jordanians care for the environment; car buyers are switching to electric cars because it is more economical1. The price of the electric car comes without any import tariffs compared to ICEs and the cost of ‘fuel’ and maintenance is cheaper by ~75%. If the consumer is used to spending 100 JODs on gasoline and maintenance per month, they would end up saving 75 JODs/month.
The question I want to ask: what would happen if, overnight, all cars in Jordan were to become electric?
In Jordan, we have 2.25 million vehicles roaming around2 our streets. It is estimated that 75,000 (~3.2%) are currently fully electric vehicles (EV), excluding hybrids and plug-in hybrids. In 2023, we imported 1.65 billion JODs worth of vehicles (+41% compared to 2022), with EV imports increasing by 140%3.
Assumptions:
Transport consumes 2.9 million Metric Tons of energy
50% from gasoline/benzene, 40% diesel, 10% jet fuel
Benzene octane 95 is 75% of fuel sales, while octane 90 is 20%. Average price in 2023 was 1.17 JOD/L for former, 0.92 JOD/L for latter.
Mileage for combustion engine car in Jordan is: 10 km/L
Electric car data for BYD DOLPHIN (300 km mileage and 60.5 kWh battery)
The Good
a. Energy:
After doing some financial acrobatics and using the assumptions above, we have 2.25 million vehicles in Jordan that have traversed 9.6 billion kms last year or an average of 4,262 kms/car/year.
That means every electric car would need around 860 kWh to recharge per year. In total: 1,935 GWh
Total electric production in Jordan is around 19,000 GWh4.
==> if all cars were to be EVs, it won’t take up more than 10% of total grid capacity.
This would be achievable and wouldn’t be a problem if households and businesses either switched to more efficient appliances to offset the increase in demand or installed hybrid solar power to generate the needed electricity (solar photovoltaic cells + battery storage). Or the lazy option would be for the government to simply increase capacity by adding another power plant to the grid.
b. Pollution
Air: I’m not a climate expert so I wouldn’t be able to say anything about the impact on CO2. However, the direct impact that can be measured is that EVs do not have tail pipes and do not emit nefarious gases to the atmosphere.
Noise: EVs are 10 dB quieter than ICEs. We won’t be woken up at night by noisy ‘well-behaved’ kids doing doughnuts.
==> if all cars were electric, we will have cleaner air and quieter streets.
c. Finances: As seen in the intro, the average driver would save up a lot by switching to EVs. The additional savings would become disposable income to the consumer.
==> if all cars were electric, Jordanians will be richer.
The Bad
a. 🔋 EV batteries, just like any rechargeable battery (like the smartphone for example), have a limited life cycle. Batteries will deteriorate after use and time and will need to be properly disposed of. Batteries are made of dangerous chemicals.
We will need a national battery recycling mechanism. ♻️
b. The Treasury receives 1 billion JODs from fuel tax per year. This would disappear overnight. The Ministry of Finance would need to find another source of income to recoup its lost stream of revenue.
c. One of the main deterrents for consumers preventing them from switching to EVs is “range anxiety”. There is already a map for charging stations in Jordan but consumers would feel more confident when there are as many charging stations as there are petrol stations.
The Ugly
According to ‘classical’ economics, a car accident is seen as beneficial to GDP due to the boost in spending: the car mechanic benefits, the government benefits, the insurance company benefits, and (God forbid) the hospital benefits too. But the lives of people transcend economics and we should all agree that the impact of accidents can be detrimental to the economy.
a. Quality Control: just like in 2015 when China was dumping steel to the world markets, it is currently dumping EVs. Most of them are entering Jordan without any guarantees on parts, warranties from suppliers, or quality checks. EVs accidents (and self bursting) are constantly in the news.
b. Plug standards: In Jordan, we do not have a standard for electric sockets and we do not really have a standard for charging connectors.
c. Software bugs and hacks: Cars today are no longer just mechanical machines. All new EVs and ICEs come with software attached to it. I once had to sit for 3 hours waiting for my car to download the latest OS upgrade.
With software comes bugs and risk of hacks. This could be very dangerous.
d. Light pollution: Most modern ICEs and EVs come with the “white” LED lights that are, in my opinion, too bright and making nighttime driving too dangerous. I’m not the only one affected by this5. I wrote how LEDs are great, but we should avoid the “white” kind and go to the warm white bulbs (even for street lights). White light should be forbidden in public places.
==> The point of a car is to be able to take you safely from point A to point B, without all the bells and whistles. Compared to ICEs, EVs can be seen as a real threat to public safety.
Conclusion
Jordan is emerging as a regional leader when it comes to Electric Vehicles and renewable energy6. Why next year we will host the first solar car race in Petra7.
It looks that converting all vehicles in Jordan to EVs wouldn’t be so bad if proper measures are taken into place.8
If the future is EV (and not hydrogen), I hope the policy makers are prepared for it.
I didn't touch on diesel and diesel trucks used for transporting goods. EV trucks are still new to the market and quite controversial, as we last saw with that company that literally went downhill: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trucks-fraud-investors-trevor-milton-nikola-electric-zero-emissions/