Wedding Season 🤵♂️👰♀️
Summer of self-content
Bella gerant alii, tu felix [Jordanus] nube1
There are two conflicting headlines. On one hand, tourism revenue is down only 5% for the first half of 2024. On the other hand, the number of tourists to Petra dropped by 67% and 25 hotels had to close operations.
How can we explain this discrepancy? I have a hypothetical explanation: weddings. A lot of Jordanians seem to be celebrating and inviting their friends and families from abroad which gave a little boost to tourism. Why am I leaning towards this? According to Chinese horoscope, we are currently in the Year of the Dragon 🐉, a year the Chinese famously claim is for babies.
I- First clue could be found in the arrivals data 🛬
According to the CBJ, the total number of foreigners arriving to Jordan from January until June of 2024 is down only 11% compared to the same period last year. The number of Jordanians however is up 25% from 1.6 million to 2 million in the same period, reaching its highest in June alone.
II- Another clue can be found with largest hotel group in Jordan: Zara hotels (ticker: ZARA).
Total room revenue for all hotels combined is down ~40% compared to same period last year, from 22 mil JODs to 13 mil JODs. There is however a big difference between the locations. Amman-based hotels like Intercontinental and Grand Hyatt saw revenue decline by 14%, while the combined revenues of hotels in Dead Sea, Petra and Aqaba plummeted by 50%. That is a wide difference.
Why was Amman unscathed by the drop of foreign tourists?
Could it be the influx of diplomats, conference attendees, other business travellers, that kept Amman hotel rooms occupied?
III- Looking at the other 3 Amman based hotels, we notice the 3rd clue: “Rental of party halls revenue” for Four Seasons, Sheraton Amman and Marriott Amman.
For FourSeasons and Sheraton, Rooms revenue dropped by less than 5% for the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same period of last year while Marriott saw revenues from rental of party halls jump by 12%.
Jordan is known to have 2 climates during the year: cold and wet from November until March, cool and dry for the rest of the year. And it’s during the second period that most people plan their weddings. The second quarter (April-June) is showing the pickup as intended.
It sounds a bit counterintuitive, but the “wedding halls” sector (قطاع صالات الأفراح) is experiencing a severe recession with bookings 80% below 2023 levels. Investors in the sector are blaming mostly the “farms” that are siphoning away 40-50% of weddings and parties that are usually organised in halls.2
IV- The only way to fully back this thesis is via Marriage statistics. Unfortunately the Supreme Judge Department, in charge of recording and officiating all marriages, have’t published its latest stats yet.
Fun fact: the average divorce rate for married couples that wed in the same year is only 6%
I will update this note when Q3 data for hotels is out and of the Supreme Judge publish any numbers verifying or invalidating my hypothesis.
If my hunch turns out to be correct, I think this is something the Ministry of Tourism should focus more on. This is the sustainable tourism we have and need (alongside Adventure Tourism and Medical Tourism). The friends and families coming from abroad to attend these weddings then go out and visit the various treasures around Jordan. Unlike those organised boatload of tourists coming and leaving without genuinely experiencing what the country has to offer. The hospitality experience becomes inauthentic. I hate the Disneyland-ification of Jordan (desert realm in the south, woodland in the north, scattered abandoned castles in between) where I fear there would be a day we would need to stand in line for 2 hours to take a picture of the Siq in Petra.
The genocide in Gaza has in a way weeded out the mass-produced tourist tours and kept the authentic travellers in place. The atrocities might not have stopped people from cancelling their wedding plans but this can be seen as a good thing: we Arabs won’t allow a genocidal evil murdering unlawful regime to let darkness prevail in these lands. Agree with me or not, I see these weddings as a sort of a sign of resistance, let’s say a middle finger to these neighbouring devils. (I also heard from some families that the amounts they spent on the celebrations was equally donated to the relief effort in Gaza. A number that I cannot corroborate)
So congratulations to all the happy newlyweds and my heartfelt congratulations to the new parents, His Royal Highness Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah II and Princess Rajwa al Hussein. Wishing you all a long and prosperous life.
Latin for: ‘Let others wage war: thou, happy Jordan, marry’. From the original “Bella gerant alii, tu felix Austria nube”. Attributed to Emperor Maximilian I commenting on all the Habsburg nuptials taking place in the XVth and XVIth century while all of Europe was at war (inspired by Ovid’s Heroides, Letter XIII “Laodamia to Protesilaus” during the Trojan War: [84] “Let others go to the wars; let Protesilaus love!” )